A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
